Analysis: What is the Iranian regime’s greatest weakness?

May 31
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Al Arabiya English, By F. Mahmoudi
Wednesday, 31 May 2017

Pro-Iranian regime analysts and commentators pretend and promote that the regime is a regional power and should not be ignored. Such a claim is usually made under the guise of deceitful patriotism at a time when crisis and instability is rampant in the Middle East and this regime is the main reason behind it.

The Iranian regime claims that it is a regional power and commentators some times bargain intentionally in its favor, assuming that such claims may be true.

The reality on the ground is that Iranian regime, or its proxies, are present in Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and are involved in killings, ethnic cleansing, destruction and instability in these countries.

The fight to liberate Mosul from ISIS is a case in point. Heads of tribes of Arab Nineveh Province in Iraq demanded from the international community to kick out militants belonging to Hashad al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces, from Mosul and its surroundings in order to end the dominance of the region by the Iranian regime and its proxies.

In other words, the Iranian regime harvests on others’ sweat and blood and turns their misfortunes into its own gains. There is no doubt occupation of Iraq and Obama’s policy of appeasement lead to the Iranian regime’s hegemony in Iraq, Syria and destabilization of the entire region. But this is not an indication of strength or power of the Iranian regime.

On the contrary creating fear, regional crises, conflict and destabilization is the other side of the coin and just the obvious sign of hiding and covering up its own fears, worries and weaknesses that could become transparent otherwise.

On the other hand, there is the cover up of weaknesses exposed by daily imprisonments, tortures and executions of unarmed and innocent dissidents in public.

The Iranian regime dreamed of an Islamic caliphate in the region lasting for 150-200 years at the beginning of coming to power. Since it was an outdated and medieval regime, not compatible with the 21st century, this dream was unlikely to remain fulfilled.

Hijacking the revolution

On one hand, the regime has dominated Iran by hijacking the revolution, which was the result of hundred years of people’s struggle and sacrifice for freedom, justice and human rights. The major fruit of this historical struggle is a movement led by Massoud Rajavi, who was aware of Khomeini’s plan and rose against it.

The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) has stood steadfast against ferocious fundamentalism and terrorism for nearly 40 years. On the other hand in the industrial (capitalist) era, a dream of medieval caliphate, is a vain idea.

To continue to survive, the regime has no choice but to suppress the public and Iranian freedom loving people, to export terrorism, creating crises in the region and around the world in order to overcome and cover up its shortcomings. Another word for this is covering the Achilles’ heel.

So what is this weakness of the Iranian regime? Before answering this, other two question must be answered:

• What caused the Iranian regime, after years of secrecy and deception, to come to the negotiation table and accepting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?
• What factors caused the defeat of Khamenei in his gamble of playing the Raisi card in the recent elections?

The biggest weakness or the Achilles’ heel of the Iranian regime, is the crisis of its legitimacy. In 2009, millions of Iranians raised slogans such as “down with the dictator” and “down with clerical rule”. According to government officials, this uprising almost overthrew the regime and exposed the weakness.

According to US President Donald Trump if Obama at the time had backed the Iranian people, who chanted “Obama, Obama, are you with us or with them?” the regime would have collapsed in less than six months.

The reason that the Iranian regime was forced into negotiation table was because of the fact that the involvement of the main Iranian opposition had turned Iran into widespread mine field and the regime feared that any mistake could lead into social explosion (uprising). This was of course besides the international sanctions and the regional countries’ response to involvement of the regime in Yemen.

Fake display of power

The display of power by the Iranian regime is fake. The appeasement policy of Obama and European countries facilitate a rescue package for it to continue to have such an open hand in causing crises and destabilizing countries in the region.

We have recently witnessed the Arab Summit in Saudi Arabia. Iran, whose leader calls himself a leader of the Muslim world, was not invited to the summit and the final declaration of the summit of 55 Muslim countries was against the interventionist and destabilizing policies of the regime in the internal affairs of Muslim countries.

Addressing the Summit, US President Donald Trump said: “From Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, Iran funds, arms, and trains terrorists, militias, and other extremist groups that spread destruction and chaos across the region. For decades, Iran has fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror”.

Among Iran’s most tragic and destabilizing interventions have been in Syria. Bolstered by Iran, Assad has committed unspeakable crimes. Responsible nations must work together to end the humanitarian crisis in Syria, eradicate ISIS, and restore stability to the region.

Suffering within

The Iranian regime’s longest-suffering victims are its own people. Iran has a rich history and culture but the people of Iran have endured hardships and despair under their leaders’ reckless pursuit of conflict and terror.

On 23rd May 2017, following US President visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with leaders of various countries in the region, the White House issued a statement related to the meeting of the heads of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the United States.

According to this statement, the leaders expressed their commitment to tackling the root causes of crises in the Middle East as well as taking more urgent steps to intensify efforts to defeat ISIS and al-Qaeda, oppose Iran’s malign interference, and ease regional conflicts and find solutions for them.

The leaders stressed strengthening the ability of GCC countries to address threats wherever they originate, confront Iran’s destabilizing activities, and work together to reduce sectarianism and regional tensions that fuel instability.

The leaders reviewed the achievements of the joint working groups that were formed to implement the outcomes of the first Gulf-American Summit in the fields of defense against ballistic missiles, arms transfers, training, combating terrorism, maritime security, cyber security, and protecting infrastructure, as well as confronting malign Iranian interference in the region.

The Iranian regime only understands the language of assertiveness and efforts are needed to deal with the Iranian regime’s meddling and stops destabilizing actions.

On May 22, National Council of Resistance of Iran, the main opposition to Islamic Republic welcomed the Arab-Islamic-American Summit positions. Maryam Rajavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, welcomed the positions of the Conference of Heads of Islamic Arab state, and the US against Iran’s actions.

Rajavi stressed that “condemning practices and crimes of the mullahs’ regime must take appropriate measures and in particular following should be achieved:
“The breaking of relation with the regime of clergy.” 
“Expelling it from the international community”
“Naming the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on the terrorist list and other military and para-military and security-related to the regime and expelling them from the region”.

This is how the regime’s weaknesses can be exposed.

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